Conflict in Gaza Can Disrupt World Economy

The armed conflict between Israel and Hamas in the Gaza Strip in more than five days is not only causing many casualties, especially among civilians. The conflict has also helped the economy hit Israel and Palestine.

Not only that, there are growing concerns among media and analysts that - like previous conflicts in the Middle East - the Israeli attack on Gaza potential negative impact to the world economy.

Oil prices in the international market has begun to rise, although not significantly. However, rising oil prices occurs when the global economy is still not fully recovered from the recession and the demand for it will increase ahead of the winter in the U.S. and Europe and other countries by the end of the year.

Moreover, it appears also to calls from a respected Israeli militia, Hezbollah, the Arab countries in order to reduce their oil production, or raise prices in the world market. It is considered an effective way to make the major consumer who is a friend of Israel, like the U.S. and Europe, in order to suppress the Zionist state to stop the attack on Gaza.

This conflict - the so-called Israel as a military operation Pillar of Defense to hit the Hamas group in Gaza, armed with rocket - has caused unrest among the travel industry, both in Israel and Palestine.

Many tourists who now think twice about visiting tourist towns near the war zone, like Jerusalem in Israel and Bethlehem in the West Bank, Palestine. According to Reuters news agency, a number of hotels in Israel and El Al airlines in recent days experienced order cancellations room and flight schedules of the tourists.

The number of cancellations will continue to grow if the conflict continues. "The conflict continued in the southern region will hit the tourism industry, which is one of the mainstays of income in the region," said Minister of Tourism of Israel Stas Misezhnikov on Sunday. Zionist state government admitted that the tourism sector accounted for only 2-3 percent of their economic growth.

Israel launched air strikes on the Gaza Strip since Wednesday, November 14, 2012. Zionist state argued that Hamas militants in Gaza launched rockets sporadically into their territory on the coast so there needs to be a counter-attack.

A number of Hamas rocket fire leads to Tel Aviv, the city became the center of trade and financial Israel. This is a surprise because previous Hamas rockets are not able to go that far.

In Jerusalem, Israel's security warning sirens were sounding routinely firing missiles from Gaza since Friday. A situation that makes the tourists visiting Jerusalem discouraged.

The Israeli government said it was too early to assess the loss caused by this conflict. But the impact could be huge losses.

A spokesman Fattal, the largest hotel chain in Israel, claimed to have received some order cancellations room. "We're seeing the beginning of a trend, but need several days to estimate the following for the overall direction of the trend," the spokesman said.

American Colony hotel in Jerusalem also expressed reservation cancellation at the last minute. Revocation may also arise from the local tourists in Israel. They chose to stay at home rather than the streets.

The usual cruise ship docked in the port of Ashdod had not dared to be approached. Additionally routes to and from Ben Gurion Airport in Tel Aviv diverted to the north to provide more space for fighter jets attacking Israel in Gaza.

Before the re-emergence of conflict in Gaza, Israel has enjoyed a high number of tourists. During January-September 2012, 2.6 million tourists visited the country. This is a new record and 7 percent higher than the same period last year.

Not just Israel who suffered losses in the tourism sector due to the conflict. Tourism accounts for 12 percent of the Palestinian gross domestic product.

Bethlehem, located in the Palestinian territories, have holy sites for Christians. Church of the Nativity of Jesus Christ, for example, has been attracting a lot of Christians in the world for a pilgrimage to it.

Since the conflict, Bethlehem lost almost half of the total turisnya. "I think the percentage of cancellations around 40-50 percent by the end of November and the next month," said Elias al-Arja, chairman of the Arab Association for a chain hotel in Bethlehem.

Revenue Down

Israel mass media also noted that the conflict in Gaza contributed harming their economies. In the last five days have hundreds of millions of shekels (NIS) is missing, either in the form of potential revenues and production costs to be borne.

In addition to many tourists who canceled all tourist places in Israel, the economic loss is in the form of the number of regular workers who suddenly had to be called military service Lantara their status as a reserve army. For those who still work, morale was down due to distracted by concerns about their security and family and this is a negative impact on productivity.

Losses also hit businesses in the Gaza Strip. Not the least of their home or place of business and their employees destroyed by the Israeli military air strikes. Their targets were Hamas militants, but the missiles they fired on civilian buildings.

The total loss in terms of the economy will depend on how long the conflict lasts. Business information company, BDI, the daily Haaretz revealed that military operations Pillar of Defense is expected to cause economic losses in Israel amounted to NIS 1.1 billion, or approximately Rp2, 6 trillion per week.

The calculation is based on the number of actual losses incurred Israel during a military operation Cast Lead a few years ago. The target is the same, the Islamist group Hamas in the Gaza Strip. Operation Cast Lead lasted about three weeks, from December 27th 2008 until January 18th 2009.

According to the BDI, the majority of the costs of Israel in a military offensive this time to pay for ammunition and fuel. For damage to property, such as homes and businesses and places belonging to Israel, BDI estimated losses approximately NIS 25 million (about Rp60, 9 billion).

The military operation time also disrupt advertising business in Israel. According to Yifat, the company researched media, in television advertising revenue dropped 20% since the start of operations Pillar of Defense.

On Wednesday through Saturday last week, ad spending on television only U.S. $ 17.5 million. This amount is lower than the same period in the previous week, which amounted to U.S. $ 22 million.

The average client delay their ad impressions on broadcast television for a while, because the more enthusiastic viewers the latest news about the war in Gaza and calls for the army reserve duty. Ironically, the drop in ad spending that would occur when the number of viewers on television in Israel increased a lot in recent days to keep abreast of the conflict.

According to the BDI survey, many consumers in Israel who recently slashed spending for leisure activities and entertainment. Many also of those who are currently serving in the military called for the status of the reserve army. So, if the government still plans to deploy 30,000 troops in reserve, the cost of which is borne war Israel increased NIS 70 million per week.

In the meantime, there is no specific calculation for economic loss incurred Palestinians in the Gaza Strip due to the Israeli attacks. Unlike Israel, the Palestinian economy in Gaza's infrastructure is still far from normal size due to constantly blocked by the Zionist military so that, if any, business and trade activities there is still difficult to measure.

Not yet recovered from the Israeli attacks during late December 2008 - early January 2009, Gaza City and the surrounding re-battered Israeli fighter jets. No measurable loss there unless loss of life and homes were destroyed.

Moreover, the Palestinian territories, for the moment, split by Israel. Gaza Strip and West Bank are separated by Israel, which is in the middle, so that the Palestinian economy is not running normally. Gaza City in the west, while to the east of Ramallah.

There are still economic activity in the West Bank. However, the economy of the region participated disrupted by the crisis in Gaza, not to mention due to sporadic acts of Israeli troops and Jewish settlers who often invade land belonging to Palestinians.

Oil Prices

The current conflict in the Middle East is not only detrimental to the economy of Israel and Palestine. The world was worried that the conflict could have an effect on rising oil prices.

According to the RTE page, the price of oil in Asian electronic trading on the New York Stock Exchange on Monday morning, 19 November rose above U.S. $ 87 per barrel. In stock London, Brent prices also rose, amounting to 55 cents to U.S. $ 109.5. Barrel. Friday has gone up to U.S. $ 108.95 per barrel.

Among analysts believe that investors are worried that oil supplies could be disrupted in the Middle East if the Israeli-Palestinian conflict in Gaza continues. Rising oil prices could be a big problem when it appears that frontal stance of the Arab countries in the oil-producing Middle East.

Moreover, the existing appeal of Hezbollah militia leader that Arab countries are using all means to support the Palestinians from Israeli attacks. This includes menaikkah oil prices. It is considered to be an effective way to put pressure on Israel and allies that support it, including the U.S., in order to stop the conflict.

"Reduce your oil exports or increase slightly the price, would definitely rocked the U.S. and Europe. With such pressure, it is not necessary to deploy troops, tanks or fighter planes," suggests the leader of Hezbollah, Hassan Nasrallah, told Reuters last week.

I wonder if the oil-producing Arab countries that want to listen to Hezbollah, which has been pro-Iran, given their differences in political ideology hindered so hard together. But the suggestion was enough to invite the attention of the mass media and the world oil market watchers.

Based in Lebanon, Hezbollah is a militia that Israel respected. They last fought in 2006. Lasts for 34 days, the war killed 1,200 civilians in Lebanon and 160 Israelis, mostly soldiers.